Spoliation

One of my pet peeves has been the lack of understanding that people have around electronic records.  I have written prior blogs about the need to be careful about what goes into email and the like.  In particular, I have tried to note these issues whenever I see them on the front page of  the paper (yes, I still read the Journal in hard copy).  Well, on Monday there was an article about Congress calling for an investigation of Countrywide's VIP program after discovering that phone recordings had been destroyed.  I have no clue about the circumstances of the destruction, and it could easily be completely innocent. 

According to the WSJ,

A Bank of America spokesman said in a written statement that the VIP recordings "were retained only for a limited time or until avialable recording space was utilized. Due to these limitations, we have no recordings from before July 2008 when Bank of American assumed management of Countrywide and terminated the VIP program."

Perhaps Bof A was following some regular corporate policy and the destruction of the recordings had nothing to do with the contents. 

What I really want to get to (for which this article in the WSJ is just the jumping off point)  is that destruction of records (electronic or not) can be a really bad idea.  Lawyers have a word for destruction of evidence "Spoliation."  The link is to Dictionary.com, but here is how Black's Law Dictionary defines spoliation:

The destruction of evidence.  It constitutes and obstruction of justice.  The destruction, or the significant or meaningful alteration of a document or instrument.

There is also a wonderful latin phrase "contra spoliatorem onmia praesumuntur".  A rough translation of this phrase is that all presumptions go against the destroyer of evidence.   Not only does it look bad, a judge and a jury and a prosecutor are likely to assume it is bad.

Twitter and A123

There’s no arguing that the recent IPO of A123 and the huge raise by Twitter are good news for market starved for good news. At least someone had a great exit, if you can call the A123 IPO an exit. And Twitter, is such an extraordinary story, if they can’t raise money on great valuations, who can? Activity like this is great after a long period in which there has been so little activity.

Having said that, the question remains if this presages a better environment for less extraordinary stories. Fred Wilson makes a good point in his blog to the effect that a financing is just a financing and not really a successful corporate event. As far as I can tell, A123 needs to be public because of the massive amounts of capital they will need to address their market opportunity. In this respect it looks like a biotech company. But the valuations are great, and it is hard to deny that investors are willing to take big risks.

The bad market returns of 2008 (even though the market has bounced back, it is still way below where it was before the fall) probably reflect in large part a reaction to an acute crisis in the financial markets as opposed to chronic long term issues. If this is true, then it should bounce back when the acute pain is over. But, it is hard to tell if long term trends have not been disguised by the presence of acute problems. I suspect that we will find out over the course of the next 12 or 18 months. If a "normal" exit market does not return in that time frame, we will need to be looking past the crisis for what the issues around capital formation are.

How will we know? We will know if solid companies (substantial companies that address real economic needs) but are not Twitter or A123 have good exits with investment justifying returns in this period in numbers that look more like 2007 than 2009.

General Public License & start-ups

Prithvi Tanwar, an associate at Foley who does a lot work with us at the EEC, recently had occasion to consider the General Public License in the context of start-ups.  This resulted in the following comments which I thought would make a useful post.

A start-up wants to develop its online application using scripts licensed under the GNU General Public License (“GPL”). What are the potential ramifications? Any modifications and works derived from a script or product that is licensed under the GPL must themselves be licensed under the terms of the GPL when distributed to third parties (they must be made available in source code, at no additional cost, to anyone to whom you distribute the modifications or derivative works).

There are two questions a start-up building software derived from scripts under the GPL needs to ask: (i) Do we plan to distribute the software? and, (ii) How much of the software do we plan to develop using the GPL scripts? If your business plan requires the sale/distribution of software to customers - move to question two. If however, you plan on providing a service using your web application, where all your software sits and runs on your servers and users access these servers through their computers (be it desktops or smart phones) you might not trigger the distribution requirement under the GPL license. If you are distributing software, the next step of the analysis is to determine whether your product “as a whole” is a derivation of the script under the GPL. If this is the case you might very well have to disclose the source code for your entire product and not just the portion you developed by modifying the GPL script. Not the route you want to take if you view your product as proprietary. Unfortunately, the question of what constitutes “as a whole” is difficult and requires a case-by-case analysis. This might be a good time to call your IP Counsel to get an idea of how much risk you plan on taking using open source software in your development process.

Your choice of a software distribution vs. service provider model will also affect investment and exit events in the future. Using GPL scripts in the development of your website application will raise concerns for potential investors and buyers. If a potential acquirer or investor views your product as the main asset, to be distributed and marketed as a closed-source proprietary product, they might balk at your use of GPL scripts. If however, the buyer or investor view you as a services company where your main asset is your customer base and market presence, the use of GPL scripts might not be a problem. Executing a software development process in tandem with your business plan and still having room for flexibility is a difficult process, but is key to avoid boxing yourself into a corner over the long run.

Twitter and who to follow

I believe that Twitter has a lasting place in the world of information overload because, if you follow the right sources, they can filter for you the things they look at and think are important. If they can tell you what something is about in 140 characters (and actually that is a lot) you can decide what you want to pursue. In this category, VentureHacks might be worth following on Twitter.

Listen to your customer

Sometimes it is worth being reminded of the obvious.  I just read Fred Wilson's blog about not planning too much.  It reminded me that I recently heard some words to live by.  "You need to know what your customer wants, not what you think he or she should want."

Cloud Computing Event

A lot of people think cloud computing is one of the next big things.  It is obviously here, and there is a lot of hype and a lot of real activity.  MassNetComms is holding an event at the EEC (our offices in Waltham) on the topic.  Sim Simeonov wil the be the moderator.  John Considine (CloudSwitch), David Skok (Matrix), Omar Trajman (Vertica Systems) and Michael Werner (Microsoft) will be on the panel.  This promises to be an informative event. 

The cloud represents, I think, a significant economic opportunity not just for companies (and entrepreneurs who learn to use it) but for entrepreneurs that build it out.  The event is on 9/23 and starts at 8:00.  If you only attend one cloud related event this fall, it should be this one.

Rands in Repose

I think it was Ezra Pound who said something like: "Literature is news that is always news..."  (I am sure I butchered the quote.)  His point was self-evident, but I read a lot of stuff (including blogs) because it helps me keep up.  There is one blog that I come back to over and over -- not because it helps me keep up but because it is always engaging and always relevant to something in my world.  I think what really keeps me coming back is that Rands addresses practical management issues in a sincere and compelling way.  So, check out Rands most recent post, which is typical of his style.  Maybe you will like it as well.

ENET event: Launching Your Successful Company

We had a great kickoff to the new "season" of programs at the EEC on Tuesday night, when we hosted the IEEE Boston Entrepreneurs' Network (ENET) September meeting "Launching Your Successful Company."  There are many more upcoming events of interest to entrepreneurs at the EEC in September, so check out our events calendar.

The slides from the presenters will be posted to the ENET website shortly, so I won't try to summarize them in full, but some interesting take aways from the three presenters:

Continue Reading

More on the state of exits

I recently met with an investment banker client.  He asserted, and I believe him, that middle market M&A activity is at 20% of the ten year average (he was talking about numbers of deals) and 33% of what it was in '01 and '02.  That is the bad news, his take on these numbers is that we are poised for a big rebound in 2010.  Hope springs eternal in the human breast.

And more on the state of the venture economy

Reproduced below are a couple of paragraphs from an article in VentureWire the thesis of which is that the venture economy has bottomed out.  The article, " Later-Stage Valuations Hold Steady In 2Q After Plunging In 1Q" is by Russell Garland. 

 
   

The median pre-money valuation for later-stage deals was $35.8 million in the second period, up slightly from $33.5 million in the first three months of the year, according to the latest data from VentureSource, a research unit of VentureWire publisher Dow Jones & Co. The median later-stage valuation for the first half of 2009 stood at $34 million compared with $51.5 million for all of 2008.

Despite the decline from last year, however, the median later-stage valuation remained well above its $20.7 million low for 2003. Prices in the venture industry tend to lag public markets, but the latest VentureSource data indicate that the bottom has been reached for this cycle.

The median first round valuation for the half is actually higher than last year, $7.3 million versus $6 million for all of 2008. This reflects a second-quarter increase in the median valuation of health care and information technology companies closing first rounds.

For second rounds, the median valuation jumped from $9 million in the first quarter to $16.2 million in the second, driven by a sharp jump in the health care sector, which more than offset a decline in IT. The median for the half, however, was $13.8 million, below last year's median of $18.5 million.
 

If the conclusions are true, this is certainly a harbinger of good news for entrepreneurs.  One thing to keep in mind is that we can be up 50% from a bottom (not that we are yet) and still be down a lot from "normal" (whatever that may be) times.  The economy is still shaking out, and what it will look like when a new equilibrium is reached is very unclear. 

 

 

Sometimes small details can create big headaches

One of our partners, Rick Schaul-Yoder tells this story:

 

When you prepare an IRS Form SS-4 to apply for a taxpayer identification number for an entity formed in the United States, you must use a U.S. address on the form.  If you use a non-U.S. address, the IRS will issue a taxpayer identification number that begins with "98".  "98" numbers are issued to non-U.S. entities.  Having a "98" number will cause significant headaches.  If the entity doesn't have its own U.S. address, use a reliable "care of" address in the U.S.

 

Sample headache:  a large London-based investment manager client recently formed a new Delaware limited partnership as an investment fund.  The SS-4 for the Delaware limited partnership was incorrectly filed with a non-U.S. address.  The IRS issued a "98" number.  The fund went to open a brokerage account with JP Morgan, and gave Morgan an IRS Form W-9 using the new taxpayer identification number.  Morgan rejected the Form W-9 because it used the same non-U.S. address. (IRS regulations won't allow brokers to rely on a W-9, as certification of U.S. status, if the W-9 shows a foreign address.)  The client contacted us, and we corrected the address, using a U.S. "care of" address on the Form W-9, but Morgan then asked why the fund had a "foreign" 98 number.  We had to say that the IRS incorrectly issued the 98 number, and we assured Morgan -- ultimately by supplying a certified copy of the Delaware certificate of limited partnership -- that the partnership is indeed a U.S. entity.  Dealing with Morgan took several days, with the client understandably more than a bit concerned because the fund was ready to launch and couldn’t do so without the account being opened.  The client also understandably failed to comprehend why it could take so much effort to prepare a simple, half-page IRS Form W-9 consisting of no more than 3 lines (name, address, identification number) and a signature.

 

More on the state of the VC industry

Bill Gurley in his abovethecrowd.com blog has a fine summary of what is going on with the VC industry and where is it going. I don’t think there are any new thoughts here, but it put a lot together and makes some pretty credible sounding predictions. One prediction is that the VC industry could become half the size it currently is. He says,

the VC industry will shrink in kind. How much will it go down? It is very hard to say. It would not be surprising for many of these funds [the pension funds, endowments and foundations that invest in venture funds] to cut their allocation in the category in half, and as a result, it shouldn’t be surprising for the VC industry to get cut in half also.

Another prediction is that it will take a long time to get there. He says,

The VC industry has low barriers to entry and high barriers to exit. Theoretically, a fund raised in 2008, where all the LPs have no plans to commit to their next fund, may still be doing business in 2018. VC funds have long lives, and the point at which they decide to “not continue” is usually when they go to raise a new fund. This would typically be 3-5 years after they raised their last fund, but could be expanded to 5-7 years in a tough market.

The Bill Gurley says something that I find very counter intuitive. He says that Silicon Valley is not likely to notice much. He says,

How should Silicon Valley think about these changes? It is important to realize that there are approximately 900 active VC firms in the U.S. alone. If that number fell to 450, it is not clear that the average Silicon Valley resident would take much notice.

Why this would be the case is not at all clear to me. I would think the more likely outcome, if his analysis is correct, is that there will be a long flat period of low (relative to the recent past) investment in innovation as a result of which the innovation side of the economy will shrink or change.

What I think is that 10 years is way too long for any trend to persist undisturbed in its pure form. Outside events will intervene in unexpected ways.