I confess not to have been much of a TV watcher back when Happy Days was on the air, and I confess I never understood the phrase “Jumping the Shark.” So I am glad that Jeff Bussgang has provided an excellent explanation complete with video clip in his most recent blog post.

Turning from the ridiculous (Fonzie jumping over sharks) to the serious, Jeff Bussgang’s point that Apple may have peaked, I have no idea if this is the case or not. Apple seems to me to have risen from the near dead with a series of brilliant product and marketing coups. It does seem unlikely that anyone can keep up that pace, but stranger things have happened.

The observation that Jeff makes that I find very convincing is this:

Many commentators are ironically observing that Android may be to the iPhone what Microsoft Windows was to the Mac - an open platform that simply wins over time on volume because of its superior ecosystem.

In many ways the history of success in the tech world (as well as in most parts of the world economy) has been all about increasing access. I think I have said this before: main frames gave way to minicomputers which in turn gave way to PCs (soon to become secondary to smart phones (?)). In each step, the population that could (and did) use the device increase by orders of magnitude. 

The Apple products are very cool and the experience is great. But, to the extent that the level of control that Apple exerts to make this experience great slows down innovation and, consequently, adoption, almost by definition Apple will soon fall behind.

If past tech shifts are any indication, the fall won’t be slow. (It will be slow in that it will take years – but those will be in low single digits and certainly not a decade.)

In the mean time, I am enjoying my macbook and my iPad, but I am going to the new Droid this week.